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Thursday, 18 June 2015

EUR/USD H4









General overview for 18/06/2015 08:00 CET

It looks like the upside wave progression to complete the wave (c) of the bigger wave B purple hasn't been completed yet as the first target is at the level of 1.1547 (61%FiboExt + Measured Move), second target is at the level of 1.1765 (100%Fibo). Nevertheless, the overall picture is bearish and the downside wave progression will start sooner or later, we just need to wait for wave 4 pink to be completed.

Support/Resistance:
1.1547 - First Target Projection
1.1475 - 1.1531 - Supply Zone
1.1365 - WR1
1.1224 - Weekly Pivot
1.1205 - Wave (b) Support

Trading recommendations:
The sell orders should be still kept open as the overall technical picture is bearish and fundamental news are currently not in favor of strong Euro ( Grexit + possible FED rate hike this year).

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Tuesday, 9 June 2015

USD/JPY Weekly









General overview for 09/06/2015:

The larger time frame charts are close to reveal some of the possibilities soon as the market approaches important levels. There are two possible scenarios here: bullish and very bearish. The most important is to look at the levels to see which count will be invalidated soon, specially on daily time frame. Moreover, the building bearish divergence is suggesting a possible sell-off soon, but the degree of the cycle is yet unknown: it might be either the end of the whole cycle or just an internal sub - wave progression corrective leg down. Please notice , that first top confirmation comes with the level of 115.00 break out and of course channel break out as well. Without this kind of price action we can not be 100% sure that the long term top is in place.


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Thursday, 28 May 2015

EUR/USD H1









General overview for 28/05/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside hasn't been completed yet as there are some wave still missing. The current corrective structure in wave 2 black looks uncompleted as well, because only wave a purple to the upside had been made so far. The market might make another wave down, labeled as wave b purple and the rally up to complete the irregular flat corrective cycle. The max. retracement for the corrective wave is at the level of 1.1061 - 1.10 77, that confluences with the 61% Fibo zone as well. On the other hand, in case of a sudden move to the downside below the level of 1.0818 the alternate count is in play.

Support/Resistance:
1.1091 - Weekly Pivot
1.1061 - 1.1077 - Resistance Zone|Confluence Level| Key Level|
1.0818 - Local Low
1.0735 - WS1

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should keep the sell trades open and add to sell positions if the market hit the grey rectangle resistance level.

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Wednesday, 27 May 2015

USD/JPY H4









General overview for 27/05/2015:
The impulsive wave development to the upside does not completed yet as there is still a corrective wave iv and one more wave v missing to complete the overall structure. The orange rectangle represents a projected target zone for wave iii. The most important support for the bulls is at the level of 123.31, because any break out lower will open the possibility of a larger corrective cycle down to the level of 122.02. Nevertheless, the bias is bullish and this pair should see more gains. Only a sustained break put below the level of 120.50 would invalidate this view.

Support/Resistance:
124.92 - WR3
124.12 - 123.92 Projected Target Zone
123.31 - Intraday Support
123.25 - WR2
122.68 - WR1
122.02 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
All bulls should consider closing a part (or full) of their position into the orange rectangle area as the immediate corrective cycle is coming. Buying the dips in wave iv is the way to trade this market in anticipation of wave v to the upside.

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Friday, 22 May 2015

GBP/USD H1









General overview for 22/05/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside labeled as wave 1 pink had been completed and the irregular corrective cycle since then has almost hit 50%Fibo at the level of 1..5877 in three wave advance. This corrective wave has been labeled as wave 2 or a purple, because there is still a possibility that corrective cycle is not completed. On lower time frames however, we can see that the first wave to the downside after the local swing high at the level of 1.5817 might be labeled as impulsive wave, followed by three wave corrective cycle (labeled as abc green). But the current wave progression does not look too much impulsive so far and the alternate count is suggesting the more complex wave (ii) green correction IF the level of 1.5566 in NOT violated.

Support/Resistance:
1.5817 - Swing High
1.5664 - Weekly Pivot
1.5566 - 1.5587 - Key Zone
1.5518 - WS1

Trading recommendations
As long as the market trades above the the level of 1.5566 the downside move is not confirmed and buy orders should be opened. Please notice that the break out below wave (i) green low at the level of 1.5450  confirms the top is in place and creates a sell swing trade opportunity to trade wave (iii) to the downside


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Monday, 18 May 2015

EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily, Weekly & Monthly









General overview for 18/05/2015 09:15 CET

On lager time frames there are two possible wave scenarios that might be happening soon and both are based on wave 4 pink corrective structure. Based on Elliott wave principles, there is one more wave to the downside missing, wave 5 pink, and it will develop only when corrective wave 4 pink is completed. As per WEEKLY chart, there are two scenarios for wave 4 pink pattern to unfold:
- scenario 1 - ABC Irregular Correction - is about to be completed on the lower time frames now and soon the market should decline towards the level of 1.1053. Breakout below is bearish.
- scenario 2 - ABCDE Triangle - is more complex and time consuming corrective pattern and would fit the alternation rule perfectly as the wave 2 pink was a simple corrective structure.

Please notice that on the MONTHLY chart the market is a rather close to the both parity level and 78% Fibo of the overall retracement of the previous swing high. The key level is at the level of 0.9900.

Support/Resistance:
1.1466 - Swing High
1.1375 - Weekly Pivot
1.1278 - WS1
1.1053 - Key Support
1.1036 - WS2

Trading recommendations:
EURUSD: Sell
Strategy name: Sigma_Wave
Trading style: Technical
Suitability: Good for full-time and part-time traders
Order type: Market order
Stop loss: 100 pips
Take profit: 200 pips
Position sizing: 0.01 lots per $2,000 of account balance
Risk per trade: 0.5%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:2
Exit: At the end of the signal period (refer to message subject)
Breakeven: Move your stop to breakeven after reaching a gain of 70 pips
Trailing stop: Maintain a 100 pip trailing stop after reaching a gain of 170 pips

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Thursday, 30 April 2015

USD/PLN Daily & Weekly









General overview for 30/04/2015 

The breakout from the weekly Expanding Triangle pattern might be completed, but the traders need to wait for a long-term top confirmation  as the big wave B purple hasn't really met any target projections. Break out below the key support zone between the levels of 3.5423 - 3.600 is needed as a first clue the top is in the place. Otherwise the move upward might continue soon, because the price just retraced 38% of the latest move upward.

Support/Resistance:
3.9671 - Swing High
3.5923 - 38%Fibo
3.5423 - 3.6000 - Weekly Demand Zone |Key Level|
3.4767 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider to open buy orders from the current price level, with SL below the level of 3.5400 and TP open for now (might be even a new high in longer term perspective).

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Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Dax Daily










General overview for 22/04/2015:

The corrective cycle in wave 4 purple has not been completed yet as there is one small sub-wave to the downside needed to finish the cycle. The first projected target level is at the level of 11500 with a possible minor decline into the level of 11401. The bounce/reversal  is expected from this zone anyway. Please notice that any violation of the level 12214 will invalidate the impulsive wave (c) blue scenario and might be first sign of either bullish break out or triangle formation in wave 4 purple.

Support/Resistance:
12143 - Swing High
12214 - Invalidation Level
12097 - WR1
11880 - Weekly Pivot
11500 - 11401 - Projected Target Zone
11343 - WS1

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be in play from the latest swing high but this move down might be terminated anytime now, so caution is advised. Please notice the overall corrective structure might evolve into more complex and time consuming triangle formation as well.
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Thursday, 26 March 2015

AUD/NZD Weekly









General overview for 26/03/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside is about to be completed as there is one more wave missing to finish five wave decline as per weekly chart. The first projected level is a typical target level at 1.0000 and unless the wave 5 is extended one it is quite possible that the corrective cycle is coming soon. Please notice that the bullish divergence is supporting the view.

Support/Resistance:
1.0000 - Target LEvel for wave 5.
1.0428 - Technical Resistance
1.1310 - Key Long Term Resistance Level

Trading recommendations:
About 70% of traders is long with the average long price at the level of 1.0685 which is a rather good contrarian sell signal for now.
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Thursday, 19 March 2015

EURUSD Daily









General overview for 19/03/2015 12:10 CET
The anticipated wave 3 to the bottom looks completed and after a FED news release market bounced strongly to the upside.  There are two possible wave progressions currently and the difference is in the degree cycle labeling: the first one is green cycle labeling (main count) and the other is pink cycle labeling ( alternative). Please notice the targets on the weekly chart are around parity but it will be determined in greater detail when the wave 4 (regardless of degree) is completed.

Support/Resistance:
1.04611 - Swing Low
1.0593 - Weekly Pivot
1.0627 - Intraday Support
1.0718 - WR1
1.0932 - 50%Fibo
1.1029 - WR2
1.1033 - 61%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
The sell orders advised from last year summer should all be closed in profit now. Congrats for those who trade it!
For today it will be quite relevant for daytraders to keep an eye on the level of 1.0627 for any possible breakout to the downside or bounce.  Please notice that the "easy money" on this pair has been made already and now the trading conditions might get choppy and full of whipsaws as wave 4 green develops.
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Wednesday, 18 February 2015

USDCHF Daily









General overview for 18/02/2015

This is first attempt to count the Elliott wave progression after SNP peg removal.

The larger time frame cycles suggest more decline towards the all time low at the level of 0.7072 and below, due to unfinished impulsive wave progression to the downside. The overall count is missing wave 5.

The lower time frames suggest a little more of the upside rally into the target zone of 0.9520 - 0.9613 and a possible reversal from there. Please notice the alternate count suggest more complex and time consuming corrective wave inside of the wave 2 black.

Support/Resistance:
0.9613 - 0.9520 - Projected Target Zone for Wave 2
0.9526 - WR3
0.9431 - WR2
0.9382 - WR1
0.9288 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be open only if price will hit the projected target area with very limited SL.

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Thursday, 8 January 2015

Gold XAUUSD H4









General overview for 08/01/2015:

The current wave progression might develop in two possible ways:
 - the first scenario indicates a possible impulsive wave progression to the upside, where wave i-ii had been made already and now wave -i- is done as well, so the corrective structure (a)(b)(c) must be completed now to continue with the upward progression. The level of 1141.14 CAN NOT be violated!
- the second scenario indicates a possible continuation of the downside move in order to complete wave 5 black. In that case the level of 1255.34 CAN NOT be violated!

Support/Resistance:
1130 - Swing Low
1141 - Invalidation Line
1145.35 - WS2
1166.13 - WS1
1188.02 - Weekly Pivot
1209.02 - WR1
1231.13 - WR2
1252.13 - WR3
1255.34 - Invalidation Line

Trading recommendations:
Please refrain from trading and wait for the important level to be broken.


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Tuesday, 9 December 2014

$DXY US Dollar Index H4, Daily, Weekly and Monthly















General overview for 09/12/2014:

The first small grey chart is a 50 years old monthly candlestick data for US Dollar index where the wave development has been labeled. As we can see, there is unfinished multi-year cycle to the upside, labeled as wave (b) green (decade degree):




Based on that assumption, the weekly charts current labeling is following the grey chart and the first two impulsive waves has been labeled (1 and 2). Then there is wave 1 ( Leading Diagonal) and complex and time consuming wave 2. There is first indication that the wave of wave 1 has been completed and now the market should enter the corrective cycle in wave 2:


Daily chart shows five waves impulsive wave progression from the DEMAND area that might have just hit the target projection of 61%Fibo at the level of 89.30. IF it is so, then the market should enter the corrective cycle now:



On intraday time frame H4, we can see that the market is slowly coming down to test the internal golden trend line and if this line is violated, then the level of 88.19 will be tested soon. Please notice
the Ending Diagonal structure in wave 5 of wave 5 (I,II,III,IV,V) and diminishing momentum resulting in a Bearish Divergence:



Support/Resistance:
89.59 - Swing High
89.30 - 61%Fibo Target
88,74 - Golden Trend Line Support
88.19 - Bullish Zone Support
87.17 - Neutral Zone Support
86.77 - 87.17 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:
As long as the high at the level of 89.59 is not violated, the chances are high, that the market has entered/is about to enter a corrective cycle. This might result in near-to-mid term SELL trade opportunity on pairs: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/PLN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY. Moreover, ther might be some forex pairs that are in good place to BUY now: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, 

Overall good opportunity to do some near-to-mid term currency basket trading.

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