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Friday, 18 April 2014

USD/JPY H1

General Overview for 18/04/2014:

There are two different scenarios to be considered here and the count is getting more and more complex and time consuming. The first scenario is a truncation in wave 5 and the overall big impulsive wave to the upside labeled as the wave 1 in blue circle is done. That would mean the current wave progression is a complex corrective pattern in a very big cycle of wave 2 in blue circle. The shape of this correction is currently had to predict but it starts to look as a complex correction as well.
The other alternate count still indicates a possible triangle pattern in wave 4 and a missing wave 5 to the upside BEFORE any meaningfull correction will happen.
On lower time frames, we can see an impulsive wave progression that has been labeled as wave C black or alt:1 purple. Currently the USD/JPY pair is in corrective cycle on lower time frame and a possible target for WXY correction has been marked on chart. Please notice that the corrective cycle might get even more complex and upside corrective cycle might extend higher. First clue that correction is finished is breakout below the level of 101.80 and secondary confirmation comes with the level of 101.50 breakout.

Support/Resistance:
102.71 - Target for wave Y brown
102.64 - WR1
102.39 - Intraday Support
101.98 - Weekly Pivot

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Wednesday, 16 April 2014

Crude Oil H4

General Overview for 16/04/2014:

The corrective upward cycle has been finished and labeled as a wave B black and now the impulsive downside cycle should start - the first wave of this cycle has been done already and the count is valid as long as the level of 105.20 is not violated.
The Key Level to the downside is the support area betwwen the level of 103.02 and the Weekly Pivot. Breakout lower is first confirmation that the impulsive cycle has begun.
Pleas enotice the Cycle indicator for big red domnant cycle is at its highest level now and the downside cycle should start very soon. The other support for this point of view comes with bearish divergence on Awesome Oscilator.

Support/Resistance:
105.73 - WR1
105.20 - Swing High
103.02 - Key Level to the downside
102.81 - Weekly Pivot
101.24 - WS1
98.35 - WS2
96.70 - WS3

Trading Recommendations:
Go short with SL above the level of 105.20. This is a big cycle top and it looks like a very good level for a SWING SELL TRADE.

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Tuesday, 15 April 2014

SP500 Futures H4

General Overview for 15/04/2014:

The current wave progression is characterized by a very distinct geometrical relationships that are typical for a corrective move. Price is hovering around current Weekly Pivot level and the main technical support level is still providing a support for the price. As long as the level of 1775 is not broken, the main bullish count is still intact and one more high is being expected in the index before any meaningful correction will happens. On the pother hand the alternate count is on the chart as well with a possible top at the level of 1892 but it is not confirmed on the lower time frames.

Support/Resistance:
1899 - WR3
1892 - All Time High
1882 - WR2
1866 - Technical Resistance
1839 - WR1
1834 - Key Level
1822 - Weekly Pivot
1800 - Technical Support
1778 - WS1
1775 - Invalidation Level
1762 - WS2

Trading Recommendations:
Buy the dips in anticipation of one more high in the index.
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Monday, 14 April 2014

EUR/USD H4

General Overview for 14/04/2014:

There is still a chance for a impulsive bearish wave progression to the downside as long as the level of GAP provides the resistance. The key level to confirm the downside is at the level of 1.3789 where the 50%Fibo is. On the other hand any breakout higher above the GAP zone means the recent swing high might be tested.
Please notice that the correction in wave 2 blue might get more complex.

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Tuesday, 8 April 2014

GBP/USD H4


General Overview for 08/04/2014:

This count is THE VERY BEST OF A POSSIBLE WAVE PROGRESSION for bulls. The wave development here is very bullish but blease notice that any breakout below the level of 1.6622 will be first clue that the Ending Diagonal wave 5 green is in progress.

From the VSA perspective there is a WEAKNESS in the background and the latest distribution area between the levels of 1.6454 and 1.6820 has still not been broekn. The volume resistance level is at the level of 1.6748 and only if this level is broken, then price might test last swing high. Please notice that price is trading higher but the overall volume is decreasing. This price behaviour might suggest an Up-Thrust move by smart money trying to trap the uninformed traders that will buy between the levels of 1.6820 - 1.7026.
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DAX30 Futures H4

General Overview for 08/04/2014:

As anticipated the upside wave progression is developing and there is one more wave to the upside missing - wave (v) purple. After this wave is finished ( 10 000 points level ) the large corrective cycle might start due to the higher time frame cycles completed.
Nevertheless, on intraday time frame if the level of 9400 - 9450 holds then the gap might get covered and new high will be made.

Support/Resistance:
9904 - WR3
9810 - WR2
9724 - WR1
9633 - Weekly Pivot
9550 - WS1
9455 - WS2
9369 - WS3


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Monday, 7 April 2014

EUR/USD H1


General Overview for 07/04/2014:

The impuslive wave progression to the downside has not been finished and there is more  waves comming as long as the level of 1.3819 is not broken. Please mind the retracement zones for wave (ii) green. On the bigger picture the current swing top at the level of 1.3965 might be the main important swing top now as the impulsve wave progression is still developing to the downside. Confirmation of this idea comes with the level of 1.3470 breakout.


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GBP/USD Daily

General overview for 07/04/2014:

The current wave progression is not very clear and the best labeling is on the chart in shape of Expanding Leading Diagonal. It is possible that price will go lower if the level of 1.6605. The count of ELD is invalidated IF the market goes above 1.6717. Otherwise bearish bias is in play and short positions should be opened.
On the Daily chart the Non Linear Regression models shows a possible top in place and the slope is pointing downwards - it is correction time or a trend revelsal time.


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Thursday, 27 March 2014

Dax30 Weekly

General Overview for 27/03/2014:

This is updated count for Dax30 Futures index (german stocks index).
On weekly chart traders can see unfinished impulsive wave progression. There are two scenarios on this count and the difference is in wave 3 (blue in circle) top placement. It looks like there is one more wave to the upside missing and the index strats to diverge from to momentum oscilator. The first target for wave 5 green is at the level of 10394.

Support/Resistance:
10394 - Target for wave 5 green
9797 - Swing High
9460 - 61%Fibo
8929 - Swing Low

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Monday, 24 March 2014

EUR/USD H1


General Overview for 24/03/2014:

The top for wave X black seems to be in place and now this is the very bearish scenario for wave Y. The decline has not been finished yet and the first target for wave 3 is at the level of 1.3742. In case this level is broken, next target and strong support level is at the level of 1.3703.

Support/Resistance:
1.3876 - WR1
1.3844 - Technical Resistance
1.3795 - Intraday Resistnace
1.3760 - Weekly Pivot
1.3742 - Min. target for wave 3
1.3703 - Typical target for wave3
1.3694 - WS1

Trading Recommendations:
Sell the rallys up th the level od 1.3844.


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Thursday, 20 March 2014

AUD/USD H4



General Overview for 20/03/2014:

There are three possibilities here for current wave prgression.
(1) The correction in wave 2 bluee is over and now we are going higher to test and break the level of 0.9085 with a possible swing high test - RUNNING FLAT SCENARIO
(2) The correction hasn't been finished yet and there is one more wave down missing to the level of grey rectangle  area  - REGULAR FLAT SCENARIO
(3) The correction hasn't been finished yet and there will be a downside extension to the level of grey rectangle area - IRREGULAR FLAT SCENARIO

Breakout above level  0.9132 invalidates scenario (2) and (3).

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Wednesday, 19 March 2014

Gold H1


General Overview for 19/03.2014:


The five wave implusive wave progression has been finished and now gold is in corrective cycle. The first wave down in shape of a abc ZigZag has been done and now some upside bounce is expexted in wave b.  The shape of this wave is yet to be determined.  The supply breakthrough zone has been broken and now it will act as a resistnace for any upside rally - key level. Only  a sustained breakout above the $1350 - $1355 level would make Weekly Pivot in view and prone to test. Pleas enotice the bullish divergence is forming on H1 AO oscillatior.

Support/Resistance:

1392 - Swing High
1375 - Weekly Pivot
1350 - 1355 - Key Level
1338 - Target for wave c
1319 - Swing Low

Trading Recommendations:

A possible upside reaction is very likley here so intraday shorts might be closed and long positions should be opened.

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Saturday, 15 March 2014

Guest article:Different styles of forex trading




Different Styles of Forex Trading

Trading the Forex market can be done in varied methods or styles depending on several key factors. For example, a person should use a style that perfectly complements his/her available screen time or risk threshold. Finding and sticking with the most compatible trading style gives you a higher edge of profiting in the Forex market for the long haul. Here are some basic styles novice traders can learn and later modify.

Day Trading
As the term implies, day trading is the act of buying or selling a financial product and closing the position the same day. An advantage of day trading is that it eliminates overnight risk. Day traders usually make two or three trades per day, but may change depending on the setups the market makes available to them. A day trading style is best suited for people who can spend a large amount of time on the screen and be patient to wait for high-quality setups.

Scalping
Scalping involves high-frequency trading with the goal of profiting a few pips with every trade. Most scalpers have a negative risk/reward ratio, meaning they are expecting to lose more money than they stand to profit on one trade. To compensate for this poor risk/reward ratio, scalpers use complex mechanical systems that have the highest possible edge and winning percentage. People who work well under pressure are ideal scalpers. One must be able to make split second decisions, which most likely have substantial impact on their account.

Position Trading
A position trader requires an incredible amount of patience to succeed in the Forex market. The style involves making a trade based on long-term technical and fundamental factors. This means one expects to profit from the position weeks, months, or even years from now. The advantage to position trading is that it greatly reduces broker commissions and it limits losses from overtrading. The right position trader candidate, however, must have monk-like patience to sit on a trade and watch as it turns from profits to losses multiple times. Also, most position trades must be given enough room to move around in, so you must have a well-funded account.

Now that you have a solid foundation of the different styles of Forex trading, sit down and assess your personality. Do you think you'd make a good position trader or scalper? Once you understand which approach works best, start
trading with iForex

Ron Raymonds

Friday, 14 March 2014

Trading Results for the last 3 weeks


Some of the trades were kept for last 3 weeks because I have decided to  open SWING TRADES instead of scalping. I have made 375 trades and made 10 271 pips! More details on past performace is available on RESULTS page.




Thursday, 13 March 2014

Nikkei Futures Daily


General overview for 13/03/2014:
The anticipated orange rectangle zone has been hit and it looks like the market has completed the impulsive wave progression. Currently this index is in corrective cycle and so far the wave progrezzion does not looks too much impulsive, so it might mean that wave XX is in progress. So far the decline has been marked as wave a  and the upside correcting move has been labeled as wave b. There is one more wave to the donside missing here and the projected target level is @ 12924. From thchnical point of view the BEARISH FLAG patren is visible as well and breakout below the blue channel supports the bearish case.  Please notice that the corrective move might get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:
15376 - 15400 - Technical Resistance
13885 - Wave a low
13160 - Technical Support
12924 - Target level for wave c

Trading Recommendations:
Go short if the blue chanel is broken with SL above the level of  15376 and TP at the level of 13885 and 12924.

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BEFORE AND AFTER CHARTS:


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EUR/USD H4


General Overview for 13/03/2014:
The market has choosen to make last impulsive leg up and now the level of 100% Fib Ext has been hit. H4 close below this level means the level has been recognized and the top for wave 5 red is in place. Please notice the momentum oscilator is diverging from the price in BEARISH way. Another confirmation comes from very basic VSA analysis: the price is going up on diminishing voume, so someone is bluffing here. The Yao Ming bar on H1 chart suggest there is a weakness in the background.



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Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Bitcoin Daily


General Overview for 10/03/2014:

The complex corrective structure has been finished BUT there is still a probability thet a Triangle pattern will emerge at the completion INSTEAD of WXY three waves correction, so please bear this in mind. The key level now for the upside is a breakout above $720 and golden descending trend line violation. No breake - no shake.



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Apple AAPL Weekly

General overview for 11/03/2014:

This is a herding psychology market model partialy based on the Elliott Wave Principle, partialy on VSA rules. It indicates more downside wave progression for Apple and the downside moves might be quite sudden and ruthless in nature. Target area is the zone between $275 - $260. Brace Yourself then.


Fundamentals:
By now you may have read about Cook snapping back at shareholders during the company's last annual meeting. If you haven't, it followed along these lines.
  • A proposal from a politically right-leaning National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR) calling for Apple to provide greater expense transparency of renewable energy/carbon mitigation efforts to shareholders failed overwhelmingly.
  • A NCPPR representative questioned Cook about the said expenses and requested Apple to avoid spending money on environmental causes that don't add shareholder value.
  • Cook responded, in part, "If you want me to do things only for ROI reasons, you should get out of this stock."
  • Cook reportedly said that there are many things Apple does because they are right and just, and that a return on investment was not the primary consideration on such issues.
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Tuesday, 4 March 2014

EUR/AUD H4



General Overview for 04/03/2014 18:40 CET
The five wave impulsive wave progression from 1.1603 level looks like it is finished on Weekly chart. On daily chart there is a visible Head and Shoulder pattern that supports the view  that the upside might be limited. Moreover, on a H4 chart we can see Bearish Flag pattern and 61%Fibo level is acting as a resistance.
Only a clear sustained breakout above the grey rectangle SUPPLY ZONE area would put the count into question and a new high above 1.5830 invalidates the count.

Support/Resistance:
1.5830 - Swing High
1.5716 - WR2
1.5623 - WR1
1.5600 - 1.5505 - SELL ZONE
1.5406 - Weekly Pivot
1.5273 - WS1
1.5092 - WS2
1.5004 - WS3

Trading Recommendations:
Sell orders should be in play from 61%Fibo level @ 1.5505 OR grey rectangle area with SL above 1.5650 level and TP below 1.50000.


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Russian RTS Index H4 and Daily Analysis



General overview for 04/02/2014 16:15 CET
The on larger time frame the index is in impulsive decline after complex and time consuming correction WXY has been finished in shape of a triangle. The decline has not been finished yet and there is more downside anticipated once the correction in wave (iv) green is finished. The first target projection is at the level of 1057 and the wave projection target is at the level min. 800 points.

Support/Resistance:
1057 - Wave 5 target projection
1190 - 38%Fibo of last swing
1226 - Technical Resistance
1245 - Invalidation Line

Trading Recommendations:
As long as price stays under 1245 level swing short positions should be opened with target much more lower: 1059 and 800 points.

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SP500 Futures H4


General overview for 04/03/2014 13:15 CET
One more push higher is needed to complete the impulsive wave sequence. Target is the level of 1883 - 1886. Please notice the descending momentum on AO oscilator as a typical bearish divergence  is forming between wave 3 and wave 5.



Support/Resistance:
1886 - WR2
1883 - 1886 - Target for wave 5.
1869 - WR1
1866 - All Time High
1845 - Weekly Pivot
1833 - WS1
1809 - WS2
1801 - Techncial Support
1795 - WS3

Trading recommendations:
Be carefull with opening large buy positions at this level due to the facet the trend is mature and impulsive cycle is about to be finished.

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BEFORE:
http://day-trader.pl/analizy/indeksy/1574-sp500-h4-d1
AFTER:

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