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Wednesday, 20 August 2014

EUR/USD H1

General overview for 18/08/2014:
The lack of the impulsive wave progression to the upside is the first clue, that the downside wave development might not be finished yet, otherwise the market would trade on much higher levels than it is now.
The main count on H1 time frame looks like a classic complex corrective structure pattern with the last cycle in wave Y brown completing right now ( or already done). This is VERY BEARISH count that indicated the top for wave 2  of 3  is completed and the market should move sharply lower soon.

It is rather hard to say what level invalidates the counts but any breakout higher above the level of 1.3432 is bullish.


Support/Resistance:
1.3294 - Technical Support
1.3308 - WS2
1.3332 - 1.3340 - DEMAND ZONE
1.3352 - WS1
1.3383 - Weekly Pivot
1.3431 - WR1
1.3462 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
Beware of a short squeeze as a start of a corrective bounce! 

Before and After charts that were posted for subscribers of VIP SERVICE:



Wednesday, 6 August 2014

GBP/JPY H4


General overview for 06/08/2014:

A slight adjustment in corrective wave labeling has been added to the chart but the general mid-term outlooks stays the same: bias is BEARISH and breakout and daily close below the level of 172.22 reinforces the view.

Support/Resistance:
171.10 - WS2
171.62 - WS1
172.22 - 172.46 - Supply Breakthrough Zone
172.92 - Weekly Pivot

Trading Recommendations:
Sell the rallys.


Sunday, 27 July 2014

Gold H4

General Overview for 27/07/2014:

We can see a clear triangle pattern formed on Weekly time frame and there as some indications, that this pattern has been completed and impulsive bearish wave progression has started. This assumption is valid only if the corrective wave (ii) green ( H4 and H1 time frame) will not violate the level of 1346. The suggested simple corrective cycle in wave (ii) green is either Running Flat of Irregular Flat formations.
 Currently the market has broken above the golden intraday trendline and it is trying to complete the last wave  to the upside of the mentioned corrective cycle - wave C black. The targets for this wave are on the chart, for both corrections respectively.
Please notice that this is only a simple corrective cycle count and it can get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:
1346 -  Green Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Line
1296 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

Trading Recommendations:

Short orders can be placed from the orange rectangle target areas with SL above the level of 1346. The potential TP is way beyond the 1287 low - projected target for wave 5 black is at the level of 1150 and with this R/R=10:1 it is a good trade to enter for SWING TRADERS.



Friday, 25 July 2014

GBP/JPY H4

On intraday  H4 chart: BIAS IS BEARISH.
Traders can see that after wave 4 black low the market has made a nice five wave impulsive structure to the upside that has been labeled as wave 5 black of wave 5 purple of the overall wave C blue. This is another confirmation of a possible long term top at the level of 175.38. Current situation on H4 time frame suggest more downside prices to come as long as the invalidation line at the level of 174.51 in not broken. Moreover, any sustained break below Supply Breakthrough Zone (172.20 - 172.47) supports the bearish bias, especially if made in impulsive fashion ( five wave decline).


Tuesday, 17 June 2014

Tesla Motos $TSLA H1 and M15


General Overview for 17/06/2014:

There is a cleat impulsive bullish wave progression on hourly chart and more upside price targets are expected here. Currently the stock is in corrective decline after hitting 300% of wave 1 expansion.
Nevertheless, it is hard to say right now whether the current development is a part of some ABC pattern or it is a clear, new impulsive wave progression to the upside.

Support/Resistance:
235.00 - Wave 3 High
223.00 - Target for wave 4
215.00 - Technical Support

Trading Recommendations:
Buy the dips into 223.00 low.




Friday, 23 May 2014

GBP/USD H1

General Overview for 23/05/2014:

The market is still in a upward red channel that might be considered as a corrective one. The breakout to the downside from this channel is valid if the level of 1.6848 is broken, otherwise the price might continue to trade to the upside. The key level for Bears is the intraday supply zone between the levels of 1.6903 - 1.6920. Only a clear breakout higher is a first confirmation, that last leg of Ending Diagonal wave (5) is in progress and new highs will be made.
On the other hand, any downside breakout below the level of 1.6848 is the first clue that the wave (b) is in progress and it might even target the levels below  previous wave (4) low.

Suppor/Resistance:
1.6995 - Swing High
1.6939 - 78%Fibo
1.6903 - 1.6920 - Supply Zone
1.6894 - 61%Fibo
1.6848 - Intraday Support
1.6818 - Weekly Pivot
1.6806 - Technical Support

Trading Recommendations:
Please wait for a clear breakout in either direction BEFORE making a trade decision. Buy/Sell Stops orders should be placed on extreme levels. Bias is neutral right now.
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Wednesday, 7 May 2014

EUR/USD H1

General Overview for 07/05/2014:
The impulsive wave progression has not been finished yet as there is couple of waves to be developed. The wave (iii) target is at the level of  1.3960 and then correction for wave (iv) is expected. The range of the correction shoudn't go below the level of 1.3913. The last target for wave (v) is at the round number of 1.4000. Please keep an eye on this level because it is very important what the market will do there.

Support/Resistance:
1.4000 - Round Number Resistance| Target for wave (v)|
1.3967 - WR2
1.3960 - Target for wave (iii)
1.3930 - WR1
1.3885 - Invalidation Level
1.3851 - Weekly Pivot

Trading Recommendations:
Buy the dips with target at the level of 1.4000.






Tuesday, 6 May 2014

AUD/USD H4

General Overview for 06/05/2014:
The correction in this pair continues in shape of a Double Three complex cycle. The invalidation level is at 0.9137. Please notice on the next chart, that the market is highly geometrical and full of proportions, both from arithmetrical and geometrical ( pink and blue rectangles). This is another support that the overall cycyle is just a correction. Breakout and close on Daily TF above the golden channel is needed to confirm correction is over.



Support/Resistance:
0.9459 - Swing High
0.9450 - WR3
0.9383 - WR2
0.9336 - WR1
0.9316 - Technical Resistance
0.9286 - Weekly Pivot
0.9222 - WS1
0.9205 - Technical Support
0.9156 - WS2
0.9137 - Invalidation Level

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Sunday, 27 April 2014

SP500 H4

General Overview for 28/04/2014:
The impulsive wave progression on Daily time frame has not been finished yet and there is more upside to come up to the level of 2000 EASY.
Nevertheless, currently the market is in corrective cycle in wave 4  and this correction has not been finished yet. For intraday traders, in case of pre-mature wave (e) completion, the level to watch is 1837 points. Any breakout lower would mean that the lower boundary of the triangle shape will be tested and the wave (e) is likely to complete at the level of 1800 points. Please notice that this correction might get even more complex and time consuming.
Please notice that the sentiment indicator of Fear&Green is slightly rising and this supports the view of a more complex correction ahead.

Support/Resistance:
1800 - Main Intraday Support
1837 - Key Level
1833 - 61%Fibo
1863 - Main Intraday Resistance

Trading Recommendations:
Buy orders should be opened in key level at the level of 1837  with tight stop (no more than 1% of the account per trade) and TP level above the last swing high.
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Saturday, 26 April 2014

EUR/USD H4

General Overview for 26/04/2014:
This pair is still on a corrective cycle.
There are two possible scenarios here, if we start the count from wave X high: impulsive OR more complex corrective bounce. The most important difference is whether wave Y will be more impulsive (full 5 waves) or it will continue to develop in more complex wave form . The NLR model still shows the downside slope and after the small triangle labeled on H4 chart as wave (b) is finished one more push lower is expected. The same structure is labeled on H1 but in different way: instead of a Triangle wave (c) it might be more complex internal cycle of WXY brown.

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Wednesday, 23 April 2014

Nikkei 225 Futures Daily

General Overview for 23/04/2014:
The price has hit the upper corrective trend boundary and now, if the count is right, the market should reverse and continue the downtrend with a target at the level of 13160 min. However, there is another way to label the current wave progression and make the triangle pattern wave b top a little lower, at the level of 14645 (current wave X). This would mean, that the target level for wave Y is even lower.


Support/Resistance:
14645 - Wave X top
13885 - Technical Support
13160 - Target Level

Trading Recommendations:
Short orders should be opened from current price levels with SL above the level of 14645 and TP at the level of 13160. Good place for a swing/position trade.

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Tuesday, 22 April 2014

#MCD McDonald's Daily

General Overview for 22/04/2014:

This pair is in the uptrend  and might hit the price target of $110 before any meaningfull correction will take place. The market moved through key support at the level of 99.09 and now it is moving upward to test the previous high at the level of 101.08 and then move even higher into 101.50 orange rectangle area. If this zone is broken, then  last swing highs will be tested - 103.64. As the NLR model slope is pointing to the north, the current target from 1-to-1 Bullish Flag projection level point to the level of 110.

Support/Resistance:
103.64 - Swing High
101.50 - Demnad Breakthrough Zone
99.09 - Technical Support

Tradaing Recommendations:
Buying the dips is the good strategy here as long as the level of 99.09 provides the support. Good time to open a swing long position.

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Friday, 18 April 2014

USD/JPY H1

General Overview for 18/04/2014:

There are two different scenarios to be considered here and the count is getting more and more complex and time consuming. The first scenario is a truncation in wave 5 and the overall big impulsive wave to the upside labeled as the wave 1 in blue circle is done. That would mean the current wave progression is a complex corrective pattern in a very big cycle of wave 2 in blue circle. The shape of this correction is currently had to predict but it starts to look as a complex correction as well.
The other alternate count still indicates a possible triangle pattern in wave 4 and a missing wave 5 to the upside BEFORE any meaningfull correction will happen.
On lower time frames, we can see an impulsive wave progression that has been labeled as wave C black or alt:1 purple. Currently the USD/JPY pair is in corrective cycle on lower time frame and a possible target for WXY correction has been marked on chart. Please notice that the corrective cycle might get even more complex and upside corrective cycle might extend higher. First clue that correction is finished is breakout below the level of 101.80 and secondary confirmation comes with the level of 101.50 breakout.

Support/Resistance:
102.71 - Target for wave Y brown
102.64 - WR1
102.39 - Intraday Support
101.98 - Weekly Pivot

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Wednesday, 16 April 2014

Crude Oil H4

General Overview for 16/04/2014:

The corrective upward cycle has been finished and labeled as a wave B black and now the impulsive downside cycle should start - the first wave of this cycle has been done already and the count is valid as long as the level of 105.20 is not violated.
The Key Level to the downside is the support area betwwen the level of 103.02 and the Weekly Pivot. Breakout lower is first confirmation that the impulsive cycle has begun.
Pleas enotice the Cycle indicator for big red domnant cycle is at its highest level now and the downside cycle should start very soon. The other support for this point of view comes with bearish divergence on Awesome Oscilator.

Support/Resistance:
105.73 - WR1
105.20 - Swing High
103.02 - Key Level to the downside
102.81 - Weekly Pivot
101.24 - WS1
98.35 - WS2
96.70 - WS3

Trading Recommendations:
Go short with SL above the level of 105.20. This is a big cycle top and it looks like a very good level for a SWING SELL TRADE.

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Tuesday, 15 April 2014

SP500 Futures H4

General Overview for 15/04/2014:

The current wave progression is characterized by a very distinct geometrical relationships that are typical for a corrective move. Price is hovering around current Weekly Pivot level and the main technical support level is still providing a support for the price. As long as the level of 1775 is not broken, the main bullish count is still intact and one more high is being expected in the index before any meaningful correction will happens. On the pother hand the alternate count is on the chart as well with a possible top at the level of 1892 but it is not confirmed on the lower time frames.

Support/Resistance:
1899 - WR3
1892 - All Time High
1882 - WR2
1866 - Technical Resistance
1839 - WR1
1834 - Key Level
1822 - Weekly Pivot
1800 - Technical Support
1778 - WS1
1775 - Invalidation Level
1762 - WS2

Trading Recommendations:
Buy the dips in anticipation of one more high in the index.
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Monday, 14 April 2014

EUR/USD H4

General Overview for 14/04/2014:

There is still a chance for a impulsive bearish wave progression to the downside as long as the level of GAP provides the resistance. The key level to confirm the downside is at the level of 1.3789 where the 50%Fibo is. On the other hand any breakout higher above the GAP zone means the recent swing high might be tested.
Please notice that the correction in wave 2 blue might get more complex.

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Tuesday, 8 April 2014

GBP/USD H4


General Overview for 08/04/2014:

This count is THE VERY BEST OF A POSSIBLE WAVE PROGRESSION for bulls. The wave development here is very bullish but blease notice that any breakout below the level of 1.6622 will be first clue that the Ending Diagonal wave 5 green is in progress.

From the VSA perspective there is a WEAKNESS in the background and the latest distribution area between the levels of 1.6454 and 1.6820 has still not been broekn. The volume resistance level is at the level of 1.6748 and only if this level is broken, then price might test last swing high. Please notice that price is trading higher but the overall volume is decreasing. This price behaviour might suggest an Up-Thrust move by smart money trying to trap the uninformed traders that will buy between the levels of 1.6820 - 1.7026.
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DAX30 Futures H4

General Overview for 08/04/2014:

As anticipated the upside wave progression is developing and there is one more wave to the upside missing - wave (v) purple. After this wave is finished ( 10 000 points level ) the large corrective cycle might start due to the higher time frame cycles completed.
Nevertheless, on intraday time frame if the level of 9400 - 9450 holds then the gap might get covered and new high will be made.

Support/Resistance:
9904 - WR3
9810 - WR2
9724 - WR1
9633 - Weekly Pivot
9550 - WS1
9455 - WS2
9369 - WS3


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Monday, 7 April 2014

EUR/USD H1


General Overview for 07/04/2014:

The impuslive wave progression to the downside has not been finished and there is more  waves comming as long as the level of 1.3819 is not broken. Please mind the retracement zones for wave (ii) green. On the bigger picture the current swing top at the level of 1.3965 might be the main important swing top now as the impulsve wave progression is still developing to the downside. Confirmation of this idea comes with the level of 1.3470 breakout.


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GBP/USD Daily

General overview for 07/04/2014:

The current wave progression is not very clear and the best labeling is on the chart in shape of Expanding Leading Diagonal. It is possible that price will go lower if the level of 1.6605. The count of ELD is invalidated IF the market goes above 1.6717. Otherwise bearish bias is in play and short positions should be opened.
On the Daily chart the Non Linear Regression models shows a possible top in place and the slope is pointing downwards - it is correction time or a trend revelsal time.


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Thursday, 27 March 2014

Dax30 Weekly

General Overview for 27/03/2014:

This is updated count for Dax30 Futures index (german stocks index).
On weekly chart traders can see unfinished impulsive wave progression. There are two scenarios on this count and the difference is in wave 3 (blue in circle) top placement. It looks like there is one more wave to the upside missing and the index strats to diverge from to momentum oscilator. The first target for wave 5 green is at the level of 10394.

Support/Resistance:
10394 - Target for wave 5 green
9797 - Swing High
9460 - 61%Fibo
8929 - Swing Low

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