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Wednesday, 26 August 2015

EUR/USD H4, Daily and Weekly









General overview for 26/08/2105:

As anticipated previously (post is here), the EUR/USD pair is trading inside of the large triangle pattern and it might take some time for this pattern to complete. Nevertheless, there is still uncompleted impulsive wave progression tot the downside with first minimal target at the level of 1.0000. To confirm the triangle pattern, the market must breakout below the level of 1.1214 (recent wave (a) blue top) and get back into the range zone. Any failure to do this might suggest a more extended move to the upside and test of the weekly supply zone at the level of 1.1883.

Support/Resistance:
1.2061 - 1.1883 - Weekly Supply Zone
1.1716 - Wave C Top
1.1656 - WR2
1.1558 - WR1
1.1434 - Technical Support
1.1290 - Weekly Pivot
1.1214 - Triangle Pattern Confirmation Level
1.1193 - WS1
1.0920 - WS2
1.0824 - WS3

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should stay short on this pair as there is still one wave missing (wave 5 pink) to complete the impulsive wave development to the downside. Please notice the wave 4 pink triangle pattern might be get more complex and time consuming. Targets are on chart.

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Monday, 24 August 2015

DAX Weekly, Daily and H4









General overview for 24/08/2015: 
The long term cycle labeled as wave 5 olive might have been completed, but there is no 100% confirmation of the top to be in place yet. The first corrective cycle from 12430 top is overbalanced, so that is the first clue of a possible top. Nevertheless, the second, bigger corrective cycle is right on the overbalance support now and the level of 9800 must be violated and daily close must happen to confirm top is in place. Moreover, the Elliott wave count is suggesting a quite impulsive wave progression to the downside might in progress now, but any breakout above 10900 invalidates this scenario.
Support/Resistance: 
11612 - WR3
11359 - WR2
10900 - Invalidation Level
10472 - WR1
10228 - Weekly Pivot
 9357 - WS1
Trading recommendations: 
Swingtraders should consider to close long term BUY orders or move the trailing stop loss orders up to the level of 9225. Daytraders should consider to sell any low/climactic volume rally up to the level of 10640 with SL above 11857.


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Tuesday, 4 August 2015

EUR/PLN Daily









General overview for 04/08/2015:

The wave 2 purple top had been established at the 61%Fibo at the level of 4.2318. Since then the market is continuing the decline towards wave 1 purple low at the level of 3.9647 and a breakout below this long term low is anticipated.  Please notice, that the corrective cycle in the current wave 1 black might get as high as the level of 4.2381 before the corrective cycle is completed. Nevertheless, the mid-term and long-term bias remains bearish and new lows are expected.

Support/Resistance:
4.2381 - Wave 2 Top| Impulsive Bearish Count Invalidation Level|
4.2318 - 61%Fibo
4.1663 - Technical Resistance
4.0955 - Technical Support
3.9647 - Wave 1 Purple Low

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider to open a mid and long-term sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 4.2381 and TP at the level of 3.9647 with a possible downward extension to the level of 3.8220.

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Monday, 27 July 2015

Crude Oil Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis
















General overview for 27/07/2015:

The crude oil prices are in decline again after making an important top at the level of 62.55 (wave 4 pink). The current impulsive wave progression is still uncompleted, but the underlying bullish divergence between the wave (iii) and (iv) green might limit the fall down to the level of 46.21. Nevertheless, the bias is still bearish and lower prices of crude oil are expected in the longer - term.
Moreover, the are fundamental indicators that are affecting current crude oil price decline:
- USA - IRAN nuclear deal
- Saudi Arabia oversupplied oil market
- increasing number of oil rigs in USA (Baker Hughes Inc)

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/63843/

Support/Resistance:
53.94 - WR3
52.61 - WR2
50.06 - WR1
48.86 - Weekly Pivot
46.21 - WS1
45.02 - WS2

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider to open sell orders from the sell zone area between the levels of 48.86 - 50.06 with SL at the level of 54.21 and TP at the level of 34.00.
Daytraders should consider to open sell orders from current price levels with SL above the level of 48.90 and TP at the level of 46.21 (min.)

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Thursday, 18 June 2015

EUR/USD H4









General overview for 18/06/2015 08:00 CET

It looks like the upside wave progression to complete the wave (c) of the bigger wave B purple hasn't been completed yet as the first target is at the level of 1.1547 (61%FiboExt + Measured Move), second target is at the level of 1.1765 (100%Fibo). Nevertheless, the overall picture is bearish and the downside wave progression will start sooner or later, we just need to wait for wave 4 pink to be completed.

Support/Resistance:
1.1547 - First Target Projection
1.1475 - 1.1531 - Supply Zone
1.1365 - WR1
1.1224 - Weekly Pivot
1.1205 - Wave (b) Support

Trading recommendations:
The sell orders should be still kept open as the overall technical picture is bearish and fundamental news are currently not in favor of strong Euro ( Grexit + possible FED rate hike this year).

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Tuesday, 9 June 2015

USD/JPY Weekly









General overview for 09/06/2015:

The larger time frame charts are close to reveal some of the possibilities soon as the market approaches important levels. There are two possible scenarios here: bullish and very bearish. The most important is to look at the levels to see which count will be invalidated soon, specially on daily time frame. Moreover, the building bearish divergence is suggesting a possible sell-off soon, but the degree of the cycle is yet unknown: it might be either the end of the whole cycle or just an internal sub - wave progression corrective leg down. Please notice , that first top confirmation comes with the level of 115.00 break out and of course channel break out as well. Without this kind of price action we can not be 100% sure that the long term top is in place.


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Thursday, 28 May 2015

EUR/USD H1









General overview for 28/05/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside hasn't been completed yet as there are some wave still missing. The current corrective structure in wave 2 black looks uncompleted as well, because only wave a purple to the upside had been made so far. The market might make another wave down, labeled as wave b purple and the rally up to complete the irregular flat corrective cycle. The max. retracement for the corrective wave is at the level of 1.1061 - 1.10 77, that confluences with the 61% Fibo zone as well. On the other hand, in case of a sudden move to the downside below the level of 1.0818 the alternate count is in play.

Support/Resistance:
1.1091 - Weekly Pivot
1.1061 - 1.1077 - Resistance Zone|Confluence Level| Key Level|
1.0818 - Local Low
1.0735 - WS1

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should keep the sell trades open and add to sell positions if the market hit the grey rectangle resistance level.

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Wednesday, 27 May 2015

USD/JPY H4









General overview for 27/05/2015:
The impulsive wave development to the upside does not completed yet as there is still a corrective wave iv and one more wave v missing to complete the overall structure. The orange rectangle represents a projected target zone for wave iii. The most important support for the bulls is at the level of 123.31, because any break out lower will open the possibility of a larger corrective cycle down to the level of 122.02. Nevertheless, the bias is bullish and this pair should see more gains. Only a sustained break put below the level of 120.50 would invalidate this view.

Support/Resistance:
124.92 - WR3
124.12 - 123.92 Projected Target Zone
123.31 - Intraday Support
123.25 - WR2
122.68 - WR1
122.02 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
All bulls should consider closing a part (or full) of their position into the orange rectangle area as the immediate corrective cycle is coming. Buying the dips in wave iv is the way to trade this market in anticipation of wave v to the upside.

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Friday, 22 May 2015

GBP/USD H1









General overview for 22/05/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside labeled as wave 1 pink had been completed and the irregular corrective cycle since then has almost hit 50%Fibo at the level of 1..5877 in three wave advance. This corrective wave has been labeled as wave 2 or a purple, because there is still a possibility that corrective cycle is not completed. On lower time frames however, we can see that the first wave to the downside after the local swing high at the level of 1.5817 might be labeled as impulsive wave, followed by three wave corrective cycle (labeled as abc green). But the current wave progression does not look too much impulsive so far and the alternate count is suggesting the more complex wave (ii) green correction IF the level of 1.5566 in NOT violated.

Support/Resistance:
1.5817 - Swing High
1.5664 - Weekly Pivot
1.5566 - 1.5587 - Key Zone
1.5518 - WS1

Trading recommendations
As long as the market trades above the the level of 1.5566 the downside move is not confirmed and buy orders should be opened. Please notice that the break out below wave (i) green low at the level of 1.5450  confirms the top is in place and creates a sell swing trade opportunity to trade wave (iii) to the downside


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Monday, 18 May 2015

EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily, Weekly & Monthly









General overview for 18/05/2015 09:15 CET

On lager time frames there are two possible wave scenarios that might be happening soon and both are based on wave 4 pink corrective structure. Based on Elliott wave principles, there is one more wave to the downside missing, wave 5 pink, and it will develop only when corrective wave 4 pink is completed. As per WEEKLY chart, there are two scenarios for wave 4 pink pattern to unfold:
- scenario 1 - ABC Irregular Correction - is about to be completed on the lower time frames now and soon the market should decline towards the level of 1.1053. Breakout below is bearish.
- scenario 2 - ABCDE Triangle - is more complex and time consuming corrective pattern and would fit the alternation rule perfectly as the wave 2 pink was a simple corrective structure.

Please notice that on the MONTHLY chart the market is a rather close to the both parity level and 78% Fibo of the overall retracement of the previous swing high. The key level is at the level of 0.9900.

Support/Resistance:
1.1466 - Swing High
1.1375 - Weekly Pivot
1.1278 - WS1
1.1053 - Key Support
1.1036 - WS2

Trading recommendations:
EURUSD: Sell
Strategy name: Sigma_Wave
Trading style: Technical
Suitability: Good for full-time and part-time traders
Order type: Market order
Stop loss: 100 pips
Take profit: 200 pips
Position sizing: 0.01 lots per $2,000 of account balance
Risk per trade: 0.5%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:2
Exit: At the end of the signal period (refer to message subject)
Breakeven: Move your stop to breakeven after reaching a gain of 70 pips
Trailing stop: Maintain a 100 pip trailing stop after reaching a gain of 170 pips

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Thursday, 30 April 2015

USD/PLN Daily & Weekly









General overview for 30/04/2015 

The breakout from the weekly Expanding Triangle pattern might be completed, but the traders need to wait for a long-term top confirmation  as the big wave B purple hasn't really met any target projections. Break out below the key support zone between the levels of 3.5423 - 3.600 is needed as a first clue the top is in the place. Otherwise the move upward might continue soon, because the price just retraced 38% of the latest move upward.

Support/Resistance:
3.9671 - Swing High
3.5923 - 38%Fibo
3.5423 - 3.6000 - Weekly Demand Zone |Key Level|
3.4767 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should consider to open buy orders from the current price level, with SL below the level of 3.5400 and TP open for now (might be even a new high in longer term perspective).

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Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Dax Daily










General overview for 22/04/2015:

The corrective cycle in wave 4 purple has not been completed yet as there is one small sub-wave to the downside needed to finish the cycle. The first projected target level is at the level of 11500 with a possible minor decline into the level of 11401. The bounce/reversal  is expected from this zone anyway. Please notice that any violation of the level 12214 will invalidate the impulsive wave (c) blue scenario and might be first sign of either bullish break out or triangle formation in wave 4 purple.

Support/Resistance:
12143 - Swing High
12214 - Invalidation Level
12097 - WR1
11880 - Weekly Pivot
11500 - 11401 - Projected Target Zone
11343 - WS1

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be in play from the latest swing high but this move down might be terminated anytime now, so caution is advised. Please notice the overall corrective structure might evolve into more complex and time consuming triangle formation as well.
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