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Thursday, 26 March 2015

AUD/NZD Weekly









General overview for 26/03/2015:
The impulsive wave progression to the downside is about to be completed as there is one more wave missing to finish five wave decline as per weekly chart. The first projected level is a typical target level at 1.0000 and unless the wave 5 is extended one it is quite possible that the corrective cycle is coming soon. Please notice that the bullish divergence is supporting the view.

Support/Resistance:
1.0000 - Target LEvel for wave 5.
1.0428 - Technical Resistance
1.1310 - Key Long Term Resistance Level

Trading recommendations:
About 70% of traders is long with the average long price at the level of 1.0685 which is a rather good contrarian sell signal for now.
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Thursday, 19 March 2015

EURUSD Daily









General overview for 19/03/2015 12:10 CET
The anticipated wave 3 to the bottom looks completed and after a FED news release market bounced strongly to the upside.  There are two possible wave progressions currently and the difference is in the degree cycle labeling: the first one is green cycle labeling (main count) and the other is pink cycle labeling ( alternative). Please notice the targets on the weekly chart are around parity but it will be determined in greater detail when the wave 4 (regardless of degree) is completed.

Support/Resistance:
1.04611 - Swing Low
1.0593 - Weekly Pivot
1.0627 - Intraday Support
1.0718 - WR1
1.0932 - 50%Fibo
1.1029 - WR2
1.1033 - 61%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
The sell orders advised from last year summer should all be closed in profit now. Congrats for those who trade it!
For today it will be quite relevant for daytraders to keep an eye on the level of 1.0627 for any possible breakout to the downside or bounce.  Please notice that the "easy money" on this pair has been made already and now the trading conditions might get choppy and full of whipsaws as wave 4 green develops.
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Wednesday, 18 February 2015

USDCHF Daily









General overview for 18/02/2015

This is first attempt to count the Elliott wave progression after SNP peg removal.

The larger time frame cycles suggest more decline towards the all time low at the level of 0.7072 and below, due to unfinished impulsive wave progression to the downside. The overall count is missing wave 5.

The lower time frames suggest a little more of the upside rally into the target zone of 0.9520 - 0.9613 and a possible reversal from there. Please notice the alternate count suggest more complex and time consuming corrective wave inside of the wave 2 black.

Support/Resistance:
0.9613 - 0.9520 - Projected Target Zone for Wave 2
0.9526 - WR3
0.9431 - WR2
0.9382 - WR1
0.9288 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be open only if price will hit the projected target area with very limited SL.

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Thursday, 8 January 2015

Gold XAUUSD H4









General overview for 08/01/2015:

The current wave progression might develop in two possible ways:
 - the first scenario indicates a possible impulsive wave progression to the upside, where wave i-ii had been made already and now wave -i- is done as well, so the corrective structure (a)(b)(c) must be completed now to continue with the upward progression. The level of 1141.14 CAN NOT be violated!
- the second scenario indicates a possible continuation of the downside move in order to complete wave 5 black. In that case the level of 1255.34 CAN NOT be violated!

Support/Resistance:
1130 - Swing Low
1141 - Invalidation Line
1145.35 - WS2
1166.13 - WS1
1188.02 - Weekly Pivot
1209.02 - WR1
1231.13 - WR2
1252.13 - WR3
1255.34 - Invalidation Line

Trading recommendations:
Please refrain from trading and wait for the important level to be broken.


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Tuesday, 9 December 2014

$DXY US Dollar Index H4, Daily, Weekly and Monthly















General overview for 09/12/2014:

The first small grey chart is a 50 years old monthly candlestick data for US Dollar index where the wave development has been labeled. As we can see, there is unfinished multi-year cycle to the upside, labeled as wave (b) green (decade degree):




Based on that assumption, the weekly charts current labeling is following the grey chart and the first two impulsive waves has been labeled (1 and 2). Then there is wave 1 ( Leading Diagonal) and complex and time consuming wave 2. There is first indication that the wave of wave 1 has been completed and now the market should enter the corrective cycle in wave 2:


Daily chart shows five waves impulsive wave progression from the DEMAND area that might have just hit the target projection of 61%Fibo at the level of 89.30. IF it is so, then the market should enter the corrective cycle now:



On intraday time frame H4, we can see that the market is slowly coming down to test the internal golden trend line and if this line is violated, then the level of 88.19 will be tested soon. Please notice
the Ending Diagonal structure in wave 5 of wave 5 (I,II,III,IV,V) and diminishing momentum resulting in a Bearish Divergence:



Support/Resistance:
89.59 - Swing High
89.30 - 61%Fibo Target
88,74 - Golden Trend Line Support
88.19 - Bullish Zone Support
87.17 - Neutral Zone Support
86.77 - 87.17 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:
As long as the high at the level of 89.59 is not violated, the chances are high, that the market has entered/is about to enter a corrective cycle. This might result in near-to-mid term SELL trade opportunity on pairs: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/PLN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY. Moreover, ther might be some forex pairs that are in good place to BUY now: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, 

Overall good opportunity to do some near-to-mid term currency basket trading.

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Monday, 8 December 2014

EUR/USD H1 and Weekly









General overview for 08/12/2014 11:50 CET

This pair keeps making fresh lows and it is quite possible that the level of 1.2167 will be the first target for the week but the pressure to the upside is increasing. Currently it is quite hard to count on the waves as there are many labeling possible including an Ending Diagonal on higher time frames. There are three zones indicated on H1 chart and only a breakout above of any of this zones would be a game changer. Otherwise the long and mid term trends are all BEARISH ( since May 2014  anyway).

PLEASE NOTICE THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO HIT WEEKLY SUPPORT TRENDLINE!!!

Support/Resistance:
1.2167 - WS1
1.2207 - Intraday Resistance
1.2337 - Weekly Pivot
1.2300 - Neutral Zone Level
1.2404 - WR1

Trading recommendations:
As long as the first game changing resistance at the level of 1.2300 is not broken, the bias is BEARISH and SELL orders should be opened ONLY.
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Friday, 5 December 2014

SP500 H4










General overview for 05/12/2014 11:10 CET
There is still one more wave to the upside missing on the lower time frame counts (wave 5) of the overall impulsive cycle labeled as big wave 5. The market looks weak right now and the mushrooming top suggest a corrective cycle in wave 4 is about to kick in. There are two possibilities here:
- main count - wave 4 has been completed and now final stages of the wave 5 are taking place. Might be impulsive, might be Ending Diagonal, but so far LOOKS impulsive. Break below the level of 2047 invalidates the scenario.
- alternate count - wave (a) of a triangle formation wave 4 has been compelled and market is now making zig-zags (5-3-5) inside of a larger corrective structure. Triangle is the anticipated pattern.

Support/Resistance:
2080 - WR2
2075 - Local All Time High
2071 - WR1
2066 - Weekly Pivot
2061 - Wave II Support
2057 - WS1
2051 - WS2
2047 - Key Level
2043 - WS3

Trading recommendations:
It is rather difficult to trade the corrective cycle especially the triangle pattern so it would be better to stay aside. However, if You are eager to trade, it would be better to go with the long term trend and stay on the BUY side.


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Wednesday, 3 December 2014

CAD/JPY H4, Daily and Weekly









General Overview for 03/12/2014:

This pair is still in uptrend targeting first 107.75 level and then possibly 115.86 level as well (it depends where wave 4 will complete).
On lower time frames the market should start a corrective cycle to the downside in wave C of wave 4, but the alternate count indicates a possibility of a completed wave 4 (alt:4) at the level of 103.45. To invalidate this alternate count, the price must break out below the level of 103.45 first and then impulsively break even lower into 23%Fibo at the level of 102.37 and then it might bounce as three wave simple ABC corrective cycle would be finished. Of course, the market might evolve into more complex pattern next , like a triangle pattern, but for now on there is no sufficient data to support this assumption. Nevertheless any breakout below the level of 99.79 invalidates this bullish outlook.
Summary:
Breakout above 105.30 is bullish and target is at the level of 106.18 and higher (Supply Zone)
Breakout below 103.45 is bearish and target is at the level of 102.37.

Support/Resistance:
106.18 -107.10 - Supply Zone
105.30 - Swing High
103.45 - Intraday Support
102.37 - 23%Fibo
101.17 - Weekly Technical Support
99.80 - Invalidation Line

Trading Recommendations:
Swing traders should keep the buy orders open as the wave progression has not been completed yet.

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EUR/USD H1









General Overview for 03/12/2014:

Just a chart update: is this it? Classic triangle pattern in wave 4 seems to fit to the overall count rather well. If so, the target is at the level of 1.2280. Please notice the bullish divergence.

Support/Resistance:
1.2281 - WS2
1.2363 - WS1
1.2448 - Weekly Pivot
1.2530 - WR1
1.2564 - Supply Zone

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Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Gold XAUUSD H4









General Overview for 02/12/2014:

The current wave progression from the level of 1130 might be labeled as the beginning of impulsive structure. The most important level now is 1255 as the former top of the wave (iv). Only breakout above this level in impulsive fashion will be seen as bullish.
Violation of the level of 1130 invalidates the impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:
1255 - Wave (iv) Top
1221 - WR3
1213 - WR2
1181 - WR1
1172 - Weekly Pivot
1142 - WS1
1133 - WS2
1130 - Wave (v) Low | Invalidation Line|

Trading Recommendations:
As long as the level of 1130 is not violated BUY orders should be opened.

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Friday, 28 November 2014

Crude Oil Futures Weekly
















General overview for 28/11/2014

The impulsive wave progression to the downside triggered by the lack of a decision on OPEC meeting is still in progress as the wave 3 is getting extended to the downside. Please notice that from a bigger point of view on this Weekly chart, there is missing wave 5 to the downside to complete the Irregular Flat corrective cycle in big wave X. The One-to-One market geometry, marked in red rectangle on chart, and the demand zone between levels of 67.06 - 69.32 are working as a line of last resort for bulls. The extension levels for wave 3 might bring some support as well but if the level of 60.44 is broken, the chances for market to test the last long term swing bottom at the level of 33.23 will dramatically INCREASE!.

Support/Resistance:
33.23 - Long Term Swing Low
60.44-62.25 - 223%Extension
64.66 - 66.06 - 200%Extension
67.06 - 69.32 - 161%Extension

Trading recommendations:
No real need to buy the crude oil right now for a longer time frame than daily. Bias is still bearish as there are incomplete waves to the downside.

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Wednesday, 26 November 2014

DAX30 H4









General overview for 26/11/2014 12:50 CET

On lower time frames traders can see, that the impulsive wave progression is unfolding to the upside and first targets has been projected at the levels of 10023 and 10175.

Support/Resistance
10175- Wave v Target Level
10084 - WR2
10023 - Wave iii Target Level
10014 - WR1
9567 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
The bias is bullish until the minimum target is hit.
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